Leading Edge: A look into the VRBA crystal ball.
February 25, 2026
By Casey Edge
The Victoria Residential Builders Association’s (VRBA) Annual Crystal Ball Housing Forecast on Jan. 14 featured presentations by Fergus Kyne, chair of the Victoria Real Estate Board; Brendon Ogmundson, chief economist at the British Columbia Real Estate Association; and Casey Edge, VRBA executive director. Attendees got the following snapshot of the Victoria and B.C. housing market.
Total housing starts in Greater Victoria increased 16 percent from 4,185 in 2024 to 4,859 in 2025. Despite the increase, housing starts were declining in the latter part of the year and this is expected to continue. Unsold new inventory is at a 35 year high, an opportunity for new homebuyers.
Last year’s interest rate cuts improved housing sales, however recent employment and inflation data indicate further cuts are unlikely. Five year fixed rates hover around four to five percent.
In 2025, there were 6,918 properties sold, a 0.36 percent increase over 2024. The benchmark price for a single family home in the Victoria Core in December 2025 was $1,255,000, a decrease of 4.7 percent from $1,316,700 last year.
There were 2,544 active listings for sale on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service at the end of December 2025, an 11.1 percent increase from the 2,290 active listings at the end of last year.
Ninety-one per cent of Victoria homebuyers are from BC, and 7 percent are from other parts of Canada. Approximately 1.6 percent are from outside Canada and 26 percent of all purchases were by first-time buyers.
The province’s housing targets have little impact in some municipalities including View Royal, North Saanich, Sidney and Central Saanich. Forty-one per cent of all new housing continues to be in two West Shore municipalities: Langford and Colwood. Bill 44 creating small multis in single-family zones increased missing-middle housing (duplexes, townhomes, etc.) however the increase represents only 4.7 percent of total housing starts. Single family housing starts have declined 55 percent since 2020.
B.C.’s economic growth over the past two years has been driven by provincial government spending, resulting in record deficits and debt levels. Trump’s tariffs have not severely impacted housing, however the issue has not been resolved and may cause future challenges.
Other challenges include the Capital Regional District water commission’s decision to add up to $9,040 DCCs per new home despite a study showing the fees would undermine new housing supply and affordability.
Municipal elections are Oct. 17 this year and knowledgeable people in the building industry are encouraged to run to address rising municipal fees and obstructive regulations.
